Is this the last chance for Khatami?

Michael Theodoulou The Times Middle East Correspondent writes for IranMania: A look at the constant power struggle between the Iranian reformist and conservative camps and how the elections may finally tip the balance of power. Comments on this article Election Archive News - Follow the events leading to the February elections.

It is difficult to overstate the importance of Iran’s general elections on February 18 because they could be the turning point in resolving the Islamic Republic’s protracted power struggle in favour of the reformers who support President Mohammed Khatami. There are huge implications not only for Iranian society and politics but for the region and beyond.

Since Mr Khatami’s landslide presidential election victory in May 1997, his government has effectively acted as the opposition, despite his huge popular mandate. His conservative opponents, meanwhile, have maintained a jealous grip on most centres of power, including the security services, the judiciary and state broadcasting.

And they have enjoyed a slender majority in parliament, the country’s most important state institution where they have used their muscle to obstruct his reform programme.

With his supporters enjoying a majority in parliament, Mr Khatami could eventually prise control of the other key institutions from conservative clerics. This would not only enable him to boost democracy at home but also to accelerate his policy of rapprochement with the West which has faced such strident opposition from the conservative camp. It would not mean the end of the power struggle, however, and the reformers will have to tread cautiously. All legislation passed by the parliament is scrutinised by the powerful Council of Guardians, a conservative-dominated body. As with all evolutionary processes, change comes gradually.

It is little wonder that Iran’s electoral trial of strength is being followed with such keen interest by the United States. There is a growing realisation in Washington that Iran, a major regional power that straddles the oil and gas wealth of the Middle East and Central Asia, is no longer a country it can afford to shun. American businessmen must wring their hands as they see their European competitors win attractive contracts in Iran.

The more moderate and democratic the system in Iran, the harder it will be for American hardliners to counter attempts in Washington to improve and eventually normalise relations, particularly now a leading ally like Britain is advocating the advantages of engagement.

The precedents for an overwhelming reformist victory were set by Mr Khatami’s presidential landslide their success in last year’s municipal elections. Such an outcome is harder to predict with confidence this time, however. Many of the parliamentary hopefuls are independents whose loyalties may take time to emerge.

The conservatives are determined, well organised and more united than their opponents. Mr Khatami’s “rainbow coalition” includes Western-style liberals, Islamic leftists and nationalists.

In all, 18 reformist groups and parties have allied in a coalition called the “Second of Khordad Front”, named after the date of Mr Khatami’s presidential election victory. Lastly, many leading reformers have been disqualified by the Council of Guardians, which vets candidates on the basis of their conformity with Islamic values.

Karbaschi and Nuri both disqualified from the elections

The most prominent was Abdollah Nouri, the former interior minister, who was recently jailed for five years for political and religious dissent. A key ally of Mr Khatami, reformers had touted him as the next parliamentary speaker, the third most powerful post in Iranian politics after the supreme leader and president. His conviction by a clerical court was seen by his supporters as a clumsy attempt to prevent him from running, effectively ensuring whoever does become parliamentary speaker will not be the people’s first choice.

While the disqualifications provoked anger in the reformist camp, they were not as extensive as many had feared, raising hopes that the more astute conservatives realise it would be counter-productive to challenge people power so blatantly. Although there are 1500 more candidates this time than in the last general elections in 1996, there have only been about half the number of disqualifications.

Many reformers also remain hopeful they have swamped the Council of Guardians with enough candidates to wrest control of parliament from their opponents. A record 6800 candidates, including more than 500 women, have registered for the race. It may not even be such a bad thing that “big-name” reformers can not run as it will ensure more fresh blood is injected into the political scene, some diplomats in Tehran argue.

The most likely outcome could be a form of compromise that may bring an easier co-existence between reformers and conservatives.

Humiliating or marginalizing the powerful conservative faction at the polls could prove as explosive as frustrating the people power behind the president. The rightists see themselves as protectors and overseers of the Revolution and have enjoyed power for too long to surrender without a determined fight. They will need to be accommodated or co-opted.

It is even argued that reformist clerics need the conservatives to prevent the secularisation of Iranian politics. Conversely, the conservatives need the reformers because they give popular legitimacy to clerical rule.

Indeed, it is believed that the shrewder conservatives, among them the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, see Mr Khatami as the last best chance for the Islamic Republic. The son of a leading ayatollah, his revolutionary credentials are impeccable and Islam is at the foundation of his vision of a tolerant, civil society.

The conservatives also have a strong interest in solving the long-running economic crisis that is responsible for much of the disillusionment of Islamic rule. A more democratic image is better suited to boosting foreign trade and investment. Conservatives are well aware that while they have slowed the pace of Mr Khatami’s reforms, his popularity remains awesome while their obstructionism has only made them more unpopular.

The president, meanwhile, has enjoyed a grace period that would be the envy of any Western politician because the public generally accepts he is not to blame for failing to deliver the social and political freedoms they want.

With Mr Nouri, the man the reformers had hoped to be their standard bearer now disqualified by his conviction for political and religious dissent, one of the most prominent figures in the elections is likely to be Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the canny former president, who has long had a foot in both camps. Many believe he will become the next parliamentary speaker, a post he held with great assurance during the turbulent years of the war with Iraq before he became president. 

He portrays himself as a moderate and is standing as an independent but also heads the list of the main conservative coalition. Many suspect the conservatives are relying on him to preserve their control of parliament or to at least moderate a reformist-dominated new majlis.

Others see him as a useful conciliator, a heavyweight political insider best placed command the centre stage and help narrow the gulf between the reformers and conservatives.

Whatever the results of the February 18 vote, one thing is certain: the democratic clock cannot be turned back. As Mr Khatami once put it, he has “institutionalised in society the issue of freedom”.

The relative openness of these elections is further proof that the Islamic Republic is one of the most pluralistic countries in the region. And leaders in those more autocratic Muslim countries who once feared the export of Iran’s revolution must now feel challenged by a different influence from the Islamic Republic – the breeze of democracy.

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